This is the biggest month in sports for me. This month has the Tour de France and four outstanding mma events.
Cycling: Tour de France
My thanks to Matt Conley for getting me into this years ago. Without Lance and with the drug scandals some fans have likely fallen away, but not me. The most compelling, arduous endurance challenge on the planet kicks off July 5. Probably the best commentary crew of any sport out there. Probably the most strategic and complicated sport I know of.
Last year the Tour was huge for me. I watched it everyday while studying for the bar. Barprep was by far the most arduous mental endurance challenge in my life. The parallels were numerous (to my law addled brain). The drama was crazy, Rasmussen the king of the mountains was wearing the yellow for many days and then was booted by his own team. Alexander Vinokourov was the favorite to win it all, he’d been in Lance’s shadow and now it was his time. He had a bad spill that hurt his performance for a couple of days. I think it was the day after the spill Vino wasn’t even keeping up with the peloton, his dreams appeared to be dying. A camerman on motorcycle tried to get a good view of his face to figure out where he was at emotionally, Vino signaled that he wanted to be left alone. The commentators lamented that they were quite sure that Vino’s chances of winning the tour’s yellow jersey have died and that if he didn’t heal up he might even fall out of the race. Vino soonafter won an individual time trial, beating the second place by a 1:14. It was a gorgeous run. He tackled the curves with reckless abandon, taking far bolder paths than any other rider. A perfect run. He explained he’d found his legs again. He won stage 15 the next day, too. The next day it was announced that he’d tested positive for blood doping the day of his individual time trial. He was kicked from the tour, his team (Astana) went on to be banned for a year (barring them from this year’s tour). With Rasmussen and Vino out the tour became unpredictable and very very competitive. The gap between the first and third places wound up being the smallest in tour history. Usually the race has been won before the last day, but one of the top three taking a spill on the final day could’ve changed the winner this year.
Truly an exciting year and there has been a huge shakeup in the sport over the last couple of years.
mma: UFC 86 - Rampage vs Forrest July 5th
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (1) vs Forrest Griffin (7) - This is very exciting. Rampage has been doing very for himself in the UFC. Most consider him a heavy favorite but Forrest is a very tough man and is not someone to be counted out. Forrest’s last win was over the formerly #1 ranked Rua (who is 1-0 over Rampage). Rampage wanted to avenge his loss to Rua but Forrest beat Rua, taking his spot for LHW contender. Rampage has KO’d plenty of guys with striking and slams. Forrest is probably a more technical striker with excellent punch/kick combos. Forrest has better submission skills than Rampage. Forrest has been improving leaps and bounds since training with Xtreme Couture. Couture is great at coming up with plans and he’s probably developed a great one for Forrest. The fight can go a number of ways, quickly or easily are the least likely.
Patrick “the Predator” Cote (29) vs Ricardo “Big Dog” Almeida (24) - Cote has been outstriking plenty of guys. Almeida made a phenomenal return to mma against Yundt. They are both great tests for each other. Cote is a very hard fighter to finish. Almeida is a top level bjj fighter. I find it very unlikely that this fight will go to a decision. Cote by strikes or Almeida with another jaw dropping submission. The winner is probably next in line for the MW title (after A.Silva fights Okami).
Joe “Daddy” Stevenson (10) vs Gleison Tibau (48) - Stevenson has only lost to Penn in the past long while and Penn is likely to beat just about anyone at LW, so it isn’t much of a knock against Joe. Tibau had a great fight against a very hard opponent in Tyson Griffin, losing by decision. Also not a big knock against him, he looked great. Two A level LWs that will likely put on an incredible performance. Stevenson is favored as he is better (in my perception) on the ground than Tibau and he has what it takes to take the fight to the ground. It should be noted that Tibau is ranked where he is because he’s only had one fight at LW, it was a loss against Tyson Griffin, he’d fought at WW before that.
Josh “Kos” Koscheck (4) vs Chris “Lights Out” Lytle (15) - Kos seems to have an allergic reaction to the moniker ‘blanket’ that many online fans apply to him. Kos came out swinging wildly, ferociously in his last fight against Hazelett. He is one of the best wrestlers in all of mma and he feels the need to show that he can bang. He took risks and fought as though he was a wounded underdog. Lytle is one of the best boxers in mma and the only way anyone has ever stopped him is by opening cuts. Lytle lost a controversial decision to Matt Serra at the end of TUF 4, he could’ve been the one to level GSP. Lytle hung on against Matt Hughes. Lytle was cut open by Thiago Alves. Lytle is a top guy, but doesn’t have a winning record against top guys. If Kos takes the fight to the ground it may be a fairly boring fight as Lytle is very hard to finish on the ground (so far no one has done it). On the feet Kos has greater physical abilities but Lytle has more skill (although Kos has been training with Swick which could help his striking improve). If this fight stays standing and both fighters’ chins hold this could be the fight of the night. (If not, it’ll likely go to Joe/Tibau or the next fight).
Tyson Griffin (16) vs Marcus “Maximus” Aurelio (30) - Tyson is consistently one of the most exciting fighters on every card he is on (save for his fight against Tibau on UFC 81, but that isn’t to say that fight was boring, it was just a crazy card). Tyson showed exceptional standup against Tibau. Aurelio showed ‘eh’ standup against Guida. Tyson’s wrestling, scrambling, sub defense and TD defense should allow him to determine where the fight will go. Though Aurelio is a top bjj guy, I feel confident that Tyson will take the fight.
Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga (8) vs Justin “the Insane 1″ McCulley (31) - I’m of the opinion that GG is a top guy, that he’s a beast that can beat anyone. He just hasn’t been doing it lately. He lost to Randy in a title fight (which was a gutsy performance where Randy just manhandled him and GG had blood flowing into his throat for much of the fight). Against Werdum he wanted another HL, like the one he got off of Werdum’s training buddy CroCop. GG came in with huge leg kicks trying to set up another Right High Kick. Werdum adapted and started avoiding damage from the leg kicks. GG seemed to tire and Werdum punished him with knees and outworked him on the ground. McCully has not shown much in his UFC career thusfar. He was a wrestler and he held a kickboxer down (Antoni Hardonk). If GG wins it won’t tell us much, if he loses it does.
And there is a trio of prelim fights that might thoroughly entertain, but might not air:
Jorge Gurgel (unranked) vs Cole “Magrino” Miller (62) - I don’t like Gurgel
Melvin “the Young Assassin” Guillard (63) vs Dennis Siver (unranked) - Melvin is a punk, but very fun to watch
Corey Hill (unranked) vs Justin Buchholz (unranked) - Hill is very new still, but he has been very impressive, so much potential.
mma: Affliction - Banned July 19th
A showcase of the top HWs in the world. Although most of the fights are mismatches of a top guy against a guy that is not nearly as good, the event will really showcase the level of these guys.
There will be a few competitive fights.
“Big” Ben Rothwell (23) vs Andrei “the Pitbull” Arlovski (6) - Rothwell was a dominant force in the IFL (which to many is just the B leagues). He had the best highlights of any HW in the organization. He struggled to beat Ricco Rodriguez (who has not looked good in a very long time… it is barely worth mentioning, but Ricco is 1-0 against Arlovski and 0-1 against Ben, about 7 years separate those fights though). Ricco was Ben’s biggest test and he barely passed. Arlovki is frequently accused of losing the fire from his belly after landing that beautiful woman. His hunger and aggression seemed to go away. Even without the fire only one man has beaten Arlovski in the past 6 years, Tim Sylvia (AA lost to Tim 2 out of 3 times). Ben fights like Tim and trains with Tim. Arlovski is Ben’s biggest challenge ever. Very hard fight to call.
Mike Whitehead (26) vs Renato “Babalu” Sobral (15) - Whitehead failed to impress at HW, but managed to earn a long winning streak at LHW, his competition at LHW has not been A level guys. Babalu has fought top guys and although he doesn’t have a winning record against top guys (A+ guys), he has shown that he deserves to be in the top. Biggest test for Whitehead in a long time. If Whitehead isn’t an A level guy then Babalu will roll over him in a dominant fashion.
Fedor “The Last Emperor” Emelianenko (1) vs Tim Sylvia (5) - I have a love/hate relationship with this fight. The Hate: In most of recent history Tim has been a decision king, winning by horribly uninteresting decisions. He jabs with his really long arms, he circles away, he defends TDs (takedowns) well enough and if he needs to he Greco clinches and holds them against the cage (which tires them because he weighs the HW cap of 265 and gives him a chance to recoup). In his last fight Tim looked great and fought aggressively and outstruck and abused Nog standing. The problem is that big Nog (who is not great at takedowns) managed to take Tim down in the third round and get an armbar with ease. Fedor’s TDs are way better than Nog’s. Fedor’s standup is far better than Nog’s. Two of the fights that Tim has lost have involved him eating a huge punch at the start of the fight and getting knocked on his ass and then his opponent pounced on him (in one instance Arlovski managed to lock a leg and tap Tim out very early, the other was Randy who pounded on him and didn’t finish him, but started a long fight of abuse on Tim). So, the fight could end in the first minute or two. Or the fight could involve Tim jabbing Fedor for the fight, outscoring him every round and frustrating him (and the viewers) as he eeks out another decision win. Fedor fought a guy before with a similar design as Tim (Schilt) and that fight was also not entertaining (Fedor won by decision). The Love: Fedor is the best HW in the world and he hasn’t fought top competition in a very long time (I’d say three years). Tim is a great test to see if Fedor lost anything while slumming it. This really could be a war.
Those ’showcase/squash’ matches (with heavy favorites on the left) -
Barnett (4) vs Rizzo (15)
Lindland (2) vs Negao (unranked)
lil Nog (12) vs Dewees (normally fights at MW, unranked there, moving up to LHW for fight)
Aleksander Emelianenko (13) vs Paul Buentello (25)
There are other names on the card and some of those unlisted fights might be great, but don’t add much to the event and might not even be aired.
mma: UFN 14 July 19th
Some top guys move weight classes to probably the hardest division in all of mma: LHW. A few of former IFL stars make their UFC debut (Rory Markham and Reese Andy, both are thoroughly decent).
Anderson “the Spider” Silva (1 MW) vs James “the Sandman” Irvin (22) - Anderson is a huge favorite in the eyes of the oddsmakers and they might see something that I don’t. What I see is the unquestionable #1 MW moving back up to LHW. He’d fought at LHW in the past and wasn’t nearly as impressive. Silva may have better skills in every area than Irvin, but Irvin has more strength and more power than anyone did in Silva’s MW division. Irvin KO’s people regularly and they stay down. There are guys that Irvin KO’d that only he was able to KO. Silva normally beats people standing but Irvin is always a threat to knock people out. Silva is several orders of magnitude better than Irvin on the ground, but Irvin’s most horrifying KOs come from guys trying to get him to the ground (flying knee). Both are great on their feet. A.Silva is so much better on the ground that if it goes there it’ll end very quickly. The fight has nearly zero chance of being boring.
Brandon “the Truth” Vera (12) vs Reese Andy (36) - battle of X factors. Andy was the second best LHW from the IFL (behind the Janitor). Vera did well at HW, but he was about as small as a HW could be. Vera has some great HL finishes and we’ll see how Andy adapts to the cage. Vera is a favorite to win, but Andy hasn’t been properly tested before.
Hermes Franca (23) vs Frank “the Answer” Edgar (15) - A level LWs that can box. If the striking doesn’t favor Edgar he’ll score a TD on the bjj wizard Franca. Franca might be just as dangerous on his back as he is on his feet, but Edgar is far from being a slouch on the ground. This fight should be great wherever it goes.
Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (36) vs Kevin Burns (23) - this fight will likely end one of two ways: 1. Rumble will score another devastating, electrifying KO, or 2. Burns will score a super slick submission. If Rumble does the first easily enough, this hype will continue to swell.
Markham (unranked) also makes his UFC debut, but I don’t know if that’ll be televised.
mma: Dream.5 July 21st
the Lightweight Grand Prix comes to a close, which could determine the #1 LW in the world.
GP bouts
Shinya Aoki (2) vs Caol Uno (11) - Aoki has always been a favorite to win this tournament. They gave him about the hardest opening round opponent available (JZ) and though a bumpy road he got past him, then was given an easier opponent the next round, who he easily defeated with a very rare submission (gogoplata from the mount). Uno had no opponent first round then fought Ishida in round 2. Uno was a huge underdog. Many thought his prime had passed long ago. Uno beat him and an in impressive way.
Eddie Alvarez (19) vs Tatsuya “Crusher” Kawajiri (7) - Eddie had the most impressive showing of any fighter in the tournament with a war against Hellboy in the second round. Eddie has just looked spectaular. Kawajiri had a tough fight in the opening round and cruised through the second round. Tough fight to call, but Alvarez has been on fire.
Then the winner of those fights fights fight to determine the winner of the LWGP. Terribly exciting. Likeliest outcome seems to be Aoki vs Alvarez and Aoki should be able to beat Alvarez by pulling guard and Alvarez not being able to elbow Aoki (as it isn’t allowed).
non-GP
Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto (4) vs Joseph Benavidez (unranked) - some think Yamamoto is the best FW in the world. Some think Faber is. Benavidez trains with Faber. If Yamamoto wins (which he should) perhaps that will pave the way to a Yamamoto/Faber fight. If Benavidez wins then we’ll know Faber is the #1. Kid is phenomenal and shouldn’t be missed.
Mirko “Crocop” Filipovic (9) vs Jérôme Le Banner (unranked) - a striking mma dream fight. CC has more mma experience, JLB is likely the better kickboxing. This fight should be pretty bone crunching.
Joachim Hansen (21) vs. Luiz Firmino (47) - both guys are warriors. Both guys had good showing in the second round (though they didn’t progress). Should be a very competitive fight.
Also on the card, but opponent TBA:
Akiyama (10), Minowaman (unranked), Mark Hunt (28), Kultar Gill (unranked), Dennis Kang (18)
An excellent month for fighting and cycling.